Can Sunderland silence Premier League sceptics in year two?

Sunderland finished seventh in the 2025-26 Premier League, qualifying for Europe for the first time since 1973. Promoted from the Championship via the play-offs in May 2025, the Black Cats returned to the top flight after an eight-year absence and exceeded pre-season expectations.

Despite that finish, bookmakers - apart from the newly promoted Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich - list Sunderland among the favourites for relegation, largely citing three factors: poor underlying numbers from last season, the so-called 'second-season syndrome' affecting promoted sides, and the added demands of European football. Those concerns have framed pre-season debate about whether Sunderland can reproduce last season's results.

Underlying metrics from 2025-26 provide the clearest statistical basis for scepticism. Expected goals (xG) analysis shows Sunderland had one of the weaker xG differences in the division: only relegated Burnley and Wolves recorded a lower xG difference than Regis le Bris' side, while West Ham – with the fourth-worst overall xG – were also relegated. The three teams with the best xG difference finished in the top three in the same order, and, excluding Sunderland, the five sides with the worst xG differentials made up the bottom five.

Sunderland did, however, outperform their xG numbers in key respects. Only Man City and Aston Villa overperformed by more than the Black Cats; Sunderland scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than expected given the number and quality of shots taken. That gap between results and underlying performance is central to arguments that last season’s league position might have been unsustainable.

The Africa Cup of Nations also affected Sunderland’s campaign. The club were without six players — twice as many as any other side — during the tournament in December and January, a period that coincided with a dip in form after a strong start. Once those players returned, Sunderland’s underlying numbers improved through the rest of the season and the team finished playing like a mid-table side; the article notes that, with no Afcon this season, the Black Cats may not suffer such a drop and says: "If they continue the 2026-27 season as they finished the last then relegation should be only a remote possibility."

Questions about a repeat collapse feed into the wider myth of 'second-season syndrome'. Murtagh said: 'Second season syndrome is lazy punditry'. Last season Sunderland and Leeds became the 53rd and 54th promoted sides to survive in the Premier League; of the previous 52 promoted teams that had survived, only 11 were relegated the following season (21%). Among promoted sides that finished in the top half in their first Premier League season, four of the previous 20 (20%) were relegated in their second season, with Sheffield United five years ago given as the most recent example.

There are historical precedents both for collapse and survival when European competition is added. George Burley’s Ipswich ended 2000-01 fifth with 66 points — the highest finish and points total for a promoted side in a 38-game season — but, after qualification into Europe, Ipswich dropped 13 places and 30 fewer points the following season and were relegated in 18th, with Sunderland that year finishing one place above them. Hull’s 2013-14 side qualified for Europe via the FA Cup after finishing 16th with 37 points; they were knocked out in the Europa League qualifying rounds in August after four European matches and were relegated with 35 points the following May.

There are counterexamples to concern, too. Wolves, the most recent promoted side to qualify for Europe before Sunderland, played 17 European fixtures as they reached the Europa League quarter-finals in 2019-20 and still finished seventh in the league. The article notes five of the previous nine promoted teams that entered Europe managed another top-half finish, while only two of that group were relegated.

Sunderland’s recent trajectory from League One to European qualification has encouraged optimism among supporters despite recognised risks. The club will now add continental fixtures to their domestic schedule as they prepare for the 2026-27 campaign.

Sunderland will be playing in Europe this season for the first time in 53 years, facing at least eight games in the Europa League on top of their usual domestic commitments; they are the 10th promoted side in Premier League history to qualify for Europe and the fifth to do so via their league position.