Carlos Alcaraz's projected route to the US Open 2026 final
Carlos Alcaraz arrives at the US Open in Flushing Meadows as the defending champion after not having played since April 14 because of a wrist injury, and a projected path to the 2026 final lists a sequence of potential opponents.
The World No. 3 skipped Roland Garros and Wimbledon and had no hard-court preparation after the wrist problem curtailed his season, yet 2026 has included the Spaniard's first Australian Open title and a Doha crown, leaving him with a 22-3 record for the year.
Alcaraz’s opening section includes Roman Safiullin, who beat him in their only previous meeting at the 2023 Paris Masters, Jaime Faria — a Portuguese player with a breakout season whom Alcaraz has never faced — and Brooksby, whom the Spaniard has beaten once but who is noted for disrupting opponents’ rhythms.
Later early-round possibilities list Matteo Arnaldi as the likeliest opponent with Alcaraz leading their rivalry 2-0, Adam Walton also 2-0 in Alcaraz’s favour, Yibing Wu having lost their only prior match, and Duckworth entering the draw as a wildcard.
A tougher middle section could feature Alexander Bublik, whom Alcaraz defeated in their sole meeting, and Tommy Paul, against whom Alcaraz leads 6-2; Thiago Tirante is highlighted after reaching the Cincinnati quarter-finals, where he beat Novak Djokovic in the opening round and Jakub Mensik in the round of 16.
Potential quarter-final and semi-final threats include Ben Shelton, who has lost all three meetings with Alcaraz and arrives off a Canadian Open triumph, and Arthur Fils, the recent Cincinnati winner who met Alcaraz in the Doha final earlier this year and trails 3-0 head-to-head; Jiri Lehecka is another name with Alcaraz ahead 3-1 after a straight-sets win in last year’s quarter-final meeting, while Cameron Norrie trails 6-3 in their head-to-head.
With Novak Djokovic exiting after a shocking opening-round defeat, Daniil Medvedev is identified as the top favourite to face Alcaraz in the semi-finals; the report states the Russian has been in terrible form lately with early-round shocks since the Italian Open and that the 2021 US Open champion last reached a Major quarter-final in 2023, while Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima round out that section and Nakashima has been described as in excellent form.
Top seed Alexander Zverev is projected to reach the championship match, and the pathway outlines Alcaraz leading their rivalry 7-6; Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2026 Roland Garros finalist Flavio Cobolli and Alex de Minaur are named as other possible opponents in the later rounds, with a potential Alcaraz–Zverev final presented as the likely championship clash.