Data points to crosses as England’s most viable route to score against Spain

England face a difficult scoring task after Spain conceded one goal in eight games on the way to winning the World Cup this summer, allowing opponents 2.37 expected goals, a mere 0.30 per 90 minutes played.

Thomas Tuchel said he hoped his side “became for 10 minutes more like Spain” to dominate possession, but added they may have to, as he himself put it, ‘embrace the chaos’ instead; he also described a national preference for a more direct approach, saying: “There is no heritage of: ‘Oh, let’s control around the middle line. Let’s do a deep buildup and then bring them out’,” and “It’s just like: ‘Come on. Let’s kick the ball into the opponent’s box and fight with them’.”

The two defeats Spain suffered in the Luis de la Fuente era both came in the UK and underline the point that alternative methods can work: in Euros qualifying at Hampden Park in March 2023 Scotland won 2-0 with Scott McTominay scoring both goals, the second arriving after David García failed to clear a Kieran Tierney cross, prompting Rodri to say, “For me, this is not football.”

Twelve months later Colombia beat Spain 1-0 in a friendly at the London Stadium with Luis Díaz crossing for Daniel Muñoz to score, another example of a delivery from the left flank producing the decisive moment.

Statistical evidence from Spain’s World Cup run reinforces the case for attacking from wide areas: across 750 minutes this summer Spain conceded just six chances that Opta deemed to be of greater value, and lowering the bar to 0.07 xG still only finds 10 shots that were worth more; the eight teams Spain faced had to work for a collective average of 75 minutes for an opportunity that had a better than one-in-14 likelihood of becoming a goal.

The highest value shot Spain allowed in the tournament occurred in the 121st minute of the final when Giuliano Simeone fired over after a move that began from a corner; Spain’s opener against Cape Verde also featured a 91st-minute opportunity for Diney Borges originating from a corner. Charles De Ketelaere’s goal for Belgium was set up by a Timothy Castagne cross, and Opta classified that goal among four “big chances” Spain allowed at the World Cup — all of them headers and all created from deliveries from wide areas.

Other examples from the tournament include Cristiano Ronaldo’s relatively high-value effort in the last-16 Iberian derby after a cross to the back post was headed back into the six-yard box, and Spain’s highest-value attempt being rated at just 0.06 expected goals, which came from a corner; Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay also attempted shots from within their own halves as they struggled for goalscoring chances.

Club-level data offers further context: Pau Cubarsí’s Barcelona conceded the second fewest crosses per game of the 96 clubs in Europe’s big five leagues last season, Athletic Bilbao were joint-ninth, and both Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte contested fewer than four aerial duels per 90 minutes — figures that contrast with the greater emphasis on balls in the air in English football.

If Trent Alexander-Arnold wanted to re-establish himself in Tuchel’s plans, delivering a trademark cross onto the head of Harry Kane against Spain would be a clear tactical start; the piece concludes by noting there may be no other way for him or England to prosper against the world champions.