Do Premier League teams need to run more to win? An Opta analysis
Premier League teams, pundits and analysts questioned whether covering more distance leads to victory in matches, an Opta analysis published on 16 October 2026 examined data from the 2025-26 season and fixtures since the start of last season in search of a link.
The scrutiny was prompted in part by pundit commentary after Manchester United dropped points against Tottenham, with Jamie Redknapp telling Sky Sports: “There’s a pattern I don’t really like when I watch teams, and that’s when – and the stats don’t lie – the other team runs more than you. In the Premier League right now, I feel there are a couple of non-negotiables: you’ve got to run more than the other team if you want to win, or at least get close enough that it doesn’t make that much of a difference. Tottenham ran five kilometres more than Manchester United.” Physical metrics such as distance covered and number of sprints have become more accessible, and pundits often point to them when big clubs underperform; Liverpool and Chelsea were singled out in similar fashion last season.
A straightforward comparison of the final Premier League table with rankings for distance covered and high-intensity distance per game showed little alignment: last season the top 10 teams averaged 4,363km over the season while the bottom 10 averaged 4,332km, a difference of 31km. The average high-intensity distance for top-10 teams was 338.7km versus 328.4km for the bottom 10, a 3% increase, and early-season data this term showed similarly weak correlations when viewed against the table.
Using the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season predictions to assess over- or under-performance produced only marginal differences: the ten clubs that finished at least one place higher than their likeliest final place averaged 4,369km, while the nine clubs that finished at least one place lower averaged 4,308km, a 1.4% gap. Sunderland (+13 places) and Manchester United (+9 places) exceeded those expectations most but were not in the top 10 for distance covered; Crystal Palace (-8 places) and Newcastle (-6 places) featured among the top 10 for ground covered yet fell short of pre-season forecasts.
An expected-points (xPts) comparison showed the bottom half for distance covered last term beat their xPts totals by 0.38 on average, whereas teams in the top half for that metric claimed 1.88 points fewer than their xPts on average. Across physical metrics for 2025-26, the strongest association with final standings was distance covered in possession, a relationship the analyst noted could reflect greater possession by stronger sides rather than causation from running more with the ball.
Match-level analysis found 86 Premier League games since the start of last season where a side covered at least 5km less than their opponents; in those fixtures the team that ran at least 5km less won 10 times, seven of which Opta’s supercomputer had expected. That constitutes an 11.6% win rate; excluding 20 matches involving at least one red card leaves eight wins from 66 matches, a 12.1% win rate. When the margin was 2.5km–4.99km less (excluding red-card games) the win rate rose to 25.8% while the loss rate was 46%.
The article cites managerial observations about timing and intent. Jürgen Klopp is quoted saying: “We don’t have to run 115km per match to be successful. You don’t have to run like crazy if you have the ball. It is only the start. We must know how to turn the screws in the right moment; better thinking, better timing. But if we play a much better team and you are not ready to run more than them, then you are crazy.” Pep Guardiola is quoted: “It’s about when you have to run. Running just to run? I can go to the track and ask the marathon guys to play for us. It’s not about that, it’s when you have to do it. Last season when some players ran it was useless. The most important thing is the combination of both things.”
The Opta analyst’s conclusion in the piece is that there is no strong correlation between total distance run across a season and success, and that the most notable links appear at match level or in possession-specific running; the analysis covers the 2025-26 season and fixtures from the start of last season and was published on 16 October 2026.