Does a rapid start determine Premier League title success?
Manchester City have won their first five Premier League matches to open the campaign in the early weeks of the season, creating a three-point lead over champions Arsenal, the Opta Analyst noted on 29 September 2026.
The report says City are the only side to have a perfect record from five games and have begun life after Pep Guardiola under Enzo Maresca. It notes uncertainty over any punishment for breaking the Premier League’s financial fair play rules is being put to one side for this analysis. City became the 15th different team to win their opening five matches of a Premier League season and the fourth occasion the club have achieved that start, having previously done so in 2015-16, 2016-17 and the season they won the league in 2023-24. This is an article by Opta Analyst.
Only four of the 14 teams that have started a season with five straight wins have gone on to lift the title (29%): Manchester City in 2023-24, Liverpool in 2019-20, and Chelsea in 2009-10 and 2005-06. All four added to their opening winning runs: Chelsea in 2009-10 and Manchester City in 2023-24 each extended their start to six wins, Liverpool began with eight successive wins in 2019-20, and Chelsea recorded nine consecutive opening victories in 2005-06.
Historic examples show a strong start is not decisive: Tottenham’s 11 straight wins at the start of the 1960-61 top-flight season coincided with winning the title, while Manchester United in 1985-86 won their first 10 games and still finished fourth. The article highlights that none of the previous seven clubs to begin a Premier League season with exactly five victories went on to win the title, with the most recent instance being Liverpool last season, who won their first five and then lost four consecutive matches.
Fixture difficulty is cited as a factor, with the Opta Power Rankings rating Manchester City’s early opponents at an average of 91.2, the second-easiest start, while Liverpool’s opponents averaged 91.1. The report also records that Liverpool’s four wins from their opening five games last season featured goals scored after the 83rd minute, a pattern that preceded their subsequent four-game losing run.
Looking at broader historical data, City’s current five-game streak is the 40th occasion a team has won their first five matches in English top-flight history, and 14 of the previous 39 such starts resulted in a league title (36%). The lowest final position recorded after a five-win start was sixth, by Newcastle United in 1994-95, noting that campaign used a 42-game schedule.
The analysis gives numerical context for champions’ early returns: across the previous 34 Premier League campaigns the average points won by eventual champions from the first five games is 11.3. Arsenal last season secured 10 points from their opening five fixtures—dropping points in a defeat at Liverpool and a home draw with Manchester City—while Mikel Arteta’s side have taken 12 points from a possible 15 this season, their only blemish a 3-0 loss at Brighton.
Statistical outliers are detailed: the fewest points won by eventual champions from the first five matches occurred in 1992-93 when Manchester United took seven points and still finished 10 points clear of runners-up Aston Villa over a 42-game season. No team in a 38-game Premier League campaign has won the title after taking fewer than eight points from their opening five games; Manchester United achieved four titles after securing exactly eight points from their first five (1998-99, 2002-03, 2007-08 and 2008-09) and Manchester City matched that in 2020-21 — "Hull City and Newcastle fans, it’s still possible."
The report also cites an earlier remarkable recovery: Sunderland failed to win any of their first seven matches in 1912-13 (two draws and five defeats) yet went on to win the First Division at a time when a win earned two points. City’s run will be tested when the Premier League resumes, with a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, who are still unbeaten under new boss Andoni Iraola.