Early 2026 NFL surprises: Brock Purdy’s form and the Raiders’ hot start
Several NFL players and teams have produced unexpected success in the early weeks of the 2026 NFL season, as of 1 October 2026. Standouts so far include San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy and the Las Vegas Raiders’ unbeaten start.
Last season concluded with a Super Bowl featuring the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots, teams that had not been widely expected to reach it. The recent past also saw a 44-year-old grandfather return after a four-season layoff to spark the Indianapolis Colts, while the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars rebounded from poor 2024 campaigns to win their divisions. It remains early in 2026 to judge which surprises will endure, but several storylines have emerged in the last few weeks.
Under an obscure Santa Clara bylaw, we are legally obliged to point out that Purdy has outplayed his status as the last pick in the 2022 draft. Purdy missed eight games last season amid continuing injury issues for the 49ers, yet San Francisco are 3-0 and he has been central to that start. He has completed 60 of 83 passes (72.3%) for 789 yards (9.5 yards per attempt), nine touchdowns, one interception, no sacks, and a passer rating of 133.1, which leads the league quite comfortably (in second place is Drew Lock, more on which later). Purdy combines mobility and an above-average arm with an ability to read defences and to throw with anticipation — “throwing his receivers open” in football parlance — and his big plays have come regardless of who is available to block or catch for him; avoiding the Substation Curse remains a concern.
Backup quarterbacks have been a running theme. The defending champion Seattle Seahawks lost starter Sam Darnold five plays into the new season to a glute injury and relied on Drew Lock, who completed 35 of 48 passes (72.9%) for 422 yards (8.8 YPA), four touchdowns, no interceptions, and posted a league-high passer rating of 127.3 — yes, even higher than Purdy’s 125.6 through those two games. Darnold returned for Week 3, but the Seahawks were beaten by Marcus Mariota, who completed 19 of 31 passes (61.3%) for 183 yards (5.9 YPA), three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.0; Seattle’s defence had allowed a cumulative passer rating of 77.8 from Week 1 of the 2025 season to Week 2 of 2026.
The most unlikely backup narrative belonged to Case Keenum for the Chicago Bears. The 38-year-old third-stringer, behind injured starter Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent, completed 24 of 34 passes (70.6%) for 247 yards (7.3 YPA), two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.8 against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. Keenum had not started an NFL game since December 2023, when he was with the Houston Texans, and his family attended the game at Soldier Field, prompting a discussion about whether his children would prefer highlights or their usual staple, Bluey.
The Raiders’ early competence has been notable given the franchise’s recent history: they have not made the playoffs since the 2021 season, their second in Las Vegas, and prior to that their last playoff appearance was in 2016 as the Oakland Raiders; the franchise has not won a playoff game since the 2002 season, seven years after they moved back to Oakland from Los Angeles. Under new head coach Klint Kubiak the Raiders are 3-0 and one of five undefeated teams (the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, and the 49ers are the others). First overall pick Fernando Mendoza has yet to appear for Las Vegas because veteran Kirk Cousins is playing at a high level, and the team ranks ninth in DVOA after finishing 31st in 2025; they have already matched last season’s win total. Observers credit Kubiak’s playcalling and defensive coordinator Rob Leonard’s work with a roster of relative no-names — Maxx Crosby excepted — and Kubiak is only the third coach in franchise history to start his first season 3-0, after Bill Callahan in 2002 and John Madden in 1969; Callahan lasted two seasons after following a Super Bowl appearance with a 4-12 record in 2003, while Madden was one of the most successful NFL coaches ever. That track record leaves open the question of how the Raiders will fare over the longer term; it could go either way.
Minnesota’s defensive approach under coordinator Brian Flores has also been a surprise. Flores, a former Bill Belichick assistant and the Miami Dolphins’ head coach from 2019 to 2021, has had his Vikings defences lead the NFL in blitz rate every season since he became their DC in 2023, and their blitz rate is 66.4% so far in 2026; the Chicago Bears rank second at 39.8%. Minnesota has also led the league every year since 2023 in simulated pressures and ranks among the NFL leaders in both six-man-or-more rushes and three-man-or-fewer rushes, with a roster that has bought into Flores’s methods. The Vikings have the NFL’s best defence per DVOA by a comfortable margin while their offence ranks 30th, and the team would be even more of a juggernaut if their offence didn’t rank 30th; Flores is described as more of a quarterback destroyer than a quarterback creator.