Empty seats in Durban underline a changing dynamic as Springboks outgrow the All Blacks
On Tuesday night at Kings Park Stadium in Durban, an under-capacity crowd of 14,759 watched New Zealand beat the Sharks 54-0 as part of the eight-match “Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry” tour.
The All Blacks’ visit is a commercial joint venture between the two unions, a 50-50 partnership that includes four Tests and a final match scheduled for Baltimore; taking that Test to the United States is expected to generate $4m-$6m more than staging a game in South Africa. Early local reaction to the touring side has been respectful rather than reverential: more than 47,000 attended New Zealand’s 38-21 opening win over the Stormers in Cape Town, but the match was level after 65 minutes before four late tries produced the final margin.
The Durban fixture exposed a gap between performance and aura. New Zealand ran in eight tries and scored 40 points after half-time in conditions described as making handling difficult, while the depleted Sharks were overwhelmed; South Africa’s Daily Maverick described the display as "vintage class." Durban’s cold, wet weather — with snow reported elsewhere in KwaZulu-Natal — coincided with a sparse crowd in a 52,000-seat stadium.
The shift in perception has a historical dimension. Between the 1995 World Cup final and Rassie Erasmus taking charge in 2018, New Zealand’s win-rate in the Republic was 68.2%, including a 2-1 series victory in 1996 and large wins by 36 points in Pretoria in 2003 and a record 42 points in Durban in 2016. That degree of deference has diminished: South Africa have won four of the past five meetings, including the 2023 World Cup final, and last year they beat New Zealand 43-10 in Wellington; the Springboks are back-to-back world champions.
Erasmus’s tenure since 2018 has been framed around successive objectives that the team has met. Under his stewardship South Africa have beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand, won the Rugby Championship, won the World Cup, beaten the British & Irish Lions and defended the World Cup. Since 2023 they also won the 2024 Rugby Championship and have diversified their game without abandoning the physicality associated with their championship sides.
That tactical broadening shows in personnel and depth. Damian Willemse shifts between full-back and first receiver, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is noted for threatening the line and Cheslin Kolbe remains active in seeking work in attack; having two Test-class front rows permits Erasmus to replace almost an entire pack without ceding scrum pressure, allowing the side to both cut opponents apart and physically dominate them.
Comparison with past dynasties sets the next challenge. Richie McCaw’s All Blacks won the 2011 and 2015 World Cups and lost only three Tests across that period, a run defined by sustained superiority in the intervening years. The Springboks have now matched New Zealand’s two World Cups and, as the author notes, next year will attempt to go one better.
The next four Tests in this series offer the opportunity to test whether South Africa’s ascendancy is transient or enduring; one remaining objective stands. One box remains. Tick it and this team may have the strongest claim yet to being the greatest of all time.