Nicolas Jackson joins Aston Villa as Ollie Watkins faces move to Al‑Hilal in up to £65m deal

Aston Villa have completed the signing of Nicolas Jackson from Chelsea in a deal worth up to £65m, with Ollie Watkins set to join Saudi Pro League side Al‑Hilal. The 25‑year‑old Jackson arrives as Villa rebuild under Unai Emery continues.

Emery's squad has been significantly altered this summer, with Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne among the departures and new additions including Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri arriving. Jackson overtakes Manzambi to become Villa's record signing. The scale of change was evident on the opening weekend when Villa slumped 4-0 at Brighton; Watkins was unavailable and Tammy Abraham and 17‑year‑old Brian Madjo were injured, leaving Emiliano Buendia to lead the line.

Statistical comparisons from last season show contrasting profiles: Jackson scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes for Bayern Munich, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90, while Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90. Those raw goal involvements underline why Villa pursued a specialist striker. The deal would coincide with the end of Watkins' six‑year spell in which he scored 108 goals in 278 games for the club.

Jackson was more prolific in shot creation and chance quality last season: he averaged 3.8 shots per 90 to Watkins' 2.6, 2.2 shots on target to 1.2, an expected‑goals (xG) of 0.7 per 90 to Watkins' 0.5, and 8.5 touches in the opposition box compared with 5.6. That higher involvement in advanced positions mirrors a longer pattern; among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has registered a higher non‑penalty xG per 90 than Jackson's 0.55.

Finishing efficiency has been a question in Jackson's record. During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG in 2023‑24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the following campaign; in England overall he has converted 18 of 61 big chances. Watkins, since joining Villa in 2020, has scored 24 of 73 big chances. Last season Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of big chances, while Watkins converted 18.9% and 43.2% respectively, but Opta notes Jackson's substitute‑heavy sample — he started 15 of 34 appearances — could inflate some per‑90 figures compared with Watkins' 43 starts and almost three times the minutes.

The two forwards differ markedly in involvement and playmaking. Both were predominantly used as centre‑forwards last season—Watkins spent 100% of his 3,837 minutes as a striker with 92% in the central role of Villa's 4‑2‑3‑1, and Jackson 95% of his 1,320 minutes up front with 86% as the striker at Bayern in the same formation—but Jackson averaged 46.6 open‑play touches per 90 to Watkins' 29.5 and completed 24 passes per 90 compared with 11.6. Jackson also averaged 1.6 shot‑ending carries, 1.6 successful take‑ons and 2.5 passes into the penalty area per 90; Watkins averaged 0.8, 0.82 and 0.7 respectively, and Opta touch maps show Jackson receiving possession across a wider range of attacking zones.

Defensive and movement metrics further separate them. Jackson averaged 34 high pressures per 90 to Watkins' 31.4, won the ball 2.7 times per 90 compared with Watkins' 1.8 and regained possession in the final third 0.9 times per 90 versus 0.6, with Jackson in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third against Watkins' 43rd. Both averaged similar runs in behind — 13 per 90 for Jackson and 12.7 for Watkins — though Watkins made slightly more of those runs finish inside the penalty area, and he won 1.2 aerial duels per 90 to Jackson's 0.7 while carrying the ball more directly towards goal.

Emery's prior work with Jackson at Villarreal is a clear factor in Villa's interest: Jackson made 27 appearances under Emery, scoring three goals and supplying three assists in 1,195 minutes, and he has said, "Unai taught me everything about football." Jackson has described arriving from Senegal with natural dribbling ability but less positional understanding and credited Emery with developing a more structured game. Jackson's 2022‑23 La Liga output included 0.56 non‑penalty xG plus xA per 90, a rate bettered by only seven players with at least 1,500 minutes, and ten of his league goal involvements followed carries, fewer only than Vinicius Jr.

Jackson scored 30 goals and provided 12 assists in 81 appearances for Chelsea before last season's loan to Bayern Munich, where he still produced 11 goals across all competitions despite limited opportunities while Harry Kane remained fit and Luis Diaz and Michael Olise featured regularly. Bayern coach Vincent Kompany defended him publicly, saying Jackson had trained and performed well. Watkins has been a consistent source of goals, running power and reliability throughout a successful period for Villa, while Jackson brings greater involvement, more progressive play and a younger profile.

If the transfer completes and Watkins departs, Villa will replace a 30‑year‑old centre‑forward with a 25‑year‑old whose underlying numbers point to a different playing profile. That combination of Emery's familiarity with Jackson and the statistical contrasts suggests Villa would be altering how their number nine operates rather than simply swapping like‑for‑like strikers.