Premier League table beginning to take shape five games in despite Man City verdict
After five matches of the Premier League season, the standings have started to look more settled than many might expect and Manchester City were found guilty of the majority of the Premier League charges levelled at them and have appealed, the BBC reported on 7 October 2026. Arsenal are pursuing back-to-back titles as the campaign enters its early stages.
Looking back to the end of last season, the table after five games already hinted at the final positions: 13 of the 20 sides finished within four places of where they sat at this stage (65%). The eventual champions Arsenal were second after five matches, Sunderland were already seventh and eventually finished there eight months later, and two of the three relegated teams were occupying the bottom three at this point.
Extending the sample to the last 10 seasons, over two-thirds of teams finished within four places of their position after five games, with 138 out of 200 sides fitting that pattern and 27 teams ending the season in exactly the same position. A further 50 teams finished between five and nine places from their early-season slot, leaving just 12 teams in the decade that moved by double digits after this stage, three of which occurred last season.
The lead spot is less stable: the team top of the table after five games has gone on to win the title in only one of the last six seasons — Man City in 2023-24 — and three times in the last 11 seasons. Even a perfect start has not guaranteed a title: Man City won their first five matches under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and in Pep Guardiola's first season in 2016-17 without claiming the championship, and Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season were all top with a 100% record at this point but did not finish as champions.
The upper end of the table can settle quickly in some years: the top eight after five games in 2024-25 ended the season as the top eight (not in the same order), while the top six in 2019-20 and the top seven in 2016-17 were already in place at this early stage. The eventual champions have been inside the top two after five games in each of the last four campaigns, suggesting — potential punishments aside — the title race is likely to involve Man City or Arsenal.
The early lower-table indicators have been more ominous. The side bottom after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons, and the last time Tottenham were bottom after five matches — in 2008-09 with two points — they finished eighth after replacing Juande Ramos with Harry Redknapp three games later. After finishing one place above the drop in the last two campaigns, Tottenham, currently in that early low position, could again face difficulties based on recent patterns.
Relegation trends also point to candidates being visible early: at least one of the teams in the bottom three after five games has been relegated in each of the last eight seasons, which in this campaign would make one of Tottenham, Fulham and Coventry very likely to go down to the Championship in May. The three teams relegated in each of the last three seasons had all been in the bottom six after five games — which would add Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to the pool of concern — while Leeds and Southampton in 2022-23 were notable exceptions, having been 7th and 9th at this stage. Hull and Ipswich, currently 8th and 11th, will aim to avoid joining that later group.
There remains a significant caveat to the table: if the guilty verdict against Manchester City is upheld, potential sanctions could have a significant impact on the standings. Until the club's appeal is resolved, the league must be considered on the basis of the table as it currently stands.
