Rule change fuels surge in reverse swing across one-day internationals
England return to action in ODI cricket against Pakistan on Tuesday (09:00 BST) in a tri-series that also involves Sri Lanka, with Test Match Special providing commentary on every match.
England had just been beaten by Sri Lanka in the second one-day international at Headingley when coach Brendon McCullum told his players in the dressing room: "The game is slightly different now," he said. "The ball is playing a massive part." The alteration to playing conditions introduced in July 2025 allows captains, after 34 overs, to choose which of the two white balls used at either end will be used to complete the remainder of the innings, a change that has permitted one ball to get older and scruffier and boosted late-life movement less than 12 months out from the next World Cup.
Data collected since the rule was implemented show a marked rise in late swing: half of full deliveries from pace bowlers in the final 10 overs have swung more than one degree, up from 35% in the 18 months before the change. Corresponding figures for death-over bowling reveal a reduction in pace-bowler economy in the final five overs from 8.40 runs per over to 7.95, and pacers' bowling averages have fallen from 19.2 to 18.3.
Individual match examples point to the on-field effect. When Sam Curran took four wickets at the death in the third ODI against India at Lord's in July, he recorded more than twice as much swing with the old white ball in his final spell than at the start of the innings. By contrast, Saqib Mahmood found less than half as much swing at the death compared to the opening period in an ODI at Cardiff against West Indies a year earlier.
Tactical adjustments have followed. Sri Lanka used fuller lengths at Headingley, bowling 69% of deliveries six metres from the stumps or fuller as they secured a 16-run win. After the Leeds defeat McCullum asked his players to "think" about how the changes might affect their plans; three days later at The Oval England moved from 104-2 to 214-2 in the 10 overs before Sri Lanka selected their preferred ball.
The rule's impact is visible across teams and bowlers worldwide. Australia, New Zealand, West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have all recorded slower scoring in the death overs since July 2025, with West Indies' death run-rate falling by 2.39 runs per over. Alzarri Joseph's average swing has risen by 84%, coinciding with a drop in his bowling average from 24.1 to 17.4; Lungi Ngidi has seen a 63.3% increase in movement, with his bowling average falling to 13 and his economy rate declining from 9.34 to six. Other bowlers registering increased late movement include Nathan Smith, Naseem Shah and Mustafizur.
The geographical pattern of change is uneven. England has experienced the largest increase in late swing, with the ball swinging 63% more at the death, while Bangladesh has seen a 33% jump. Matches in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan have also shown significantly more late movement, a factor noted as relevant for fixtures in the next two weeks. In contrast, the rise has been less pronounced in Australia and South Africa; there have been only three ODIs in South Africa since the rule change, and teams have been scoring at 7.35 runs per over there in recent years.
England's next scheduled game in the tri-series is against Pakistan on Tuesday at 09:00 BST, with Test Match Special covering every match; the recent spike in reverse swing will be one of the tactical variables teams must account for as the series continues.
