Suspicious bets that predicted Ballon d’Or top five and returned £149,000 under investigation

A series of suspicious wagers that correctly predicted the exact top-five finishing order at this year’s Ballon d’Or ceremony at the London Palladium on Monday — generating almost $200,000 (£149,000) in winnings — are being investigated by France Football.

The bets are alleged to have been placed through Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, with 12 accounts said to have staked more than $264,000 on the outcome before the ceremony. The precise finishing order they backed was Harry Kane first, Kylian Mbappé second, Lamine Yamal third, Rodri fourth and Lionel Messi fifth; Kane was crowned the winner at the event. Raphaël Pautard of Upside told investigators the 12 accounts were created between 1 October and 20 October and showed closely similar patterns of activity, with seven of the accounts having no prior participation in other markets and six placing their first bets within 15 minutes of creation.

Upside reported tracing one blockchain transaction to a French platform and said that after sharing the relevant transactions and wallet addresses the platform confirmed it had identified the individual behind one of the accounts that funded the suspicious wagers. The identity has not been made public. Upside said that discovery could be important for linking the accounts and following the money behind the bets.

Rather than spreading stakes across multiple scenarios, the identified accounts concentrated bets on the single scenario of Kane, Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri and Messi. Every position subsequently matched the official result, a sequence Upside says generated nearly $200,000 in profits for those accounts. One account reportedly purchased a contract predicting Kane would win at 37 cents and sold it when the price reached 67 cents, then redirected funds into bets on specific finishing positions including Yamal finishing third.

The combination of the wagers’ timing, the concentration on one precise outcome and the sums involved has prompted concern about a possible leak of confidential information ahead of the announcement. France Football had previously indicated that only a small number of people knew the winner in advance. "How do we keep the winner’s identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible," said the former France Football editor Pascal Ferré last week.

Upside passed its findings to France Football, which is owned by Groupe Amaury and has organised the Ballon d’Or awards since 1956. It is understood to have received confirmation on Friday afternoon that an investigation has been opened, with the French police also to be informed. France Football has been contacted for comment.