Wales face Portugal with relegation play-off likely after 3-1 Norway defeat
Wales lost 3-1 to Norway in Oslo on Saturday in the Nations League and will finish bottom of Group A4 even if they beat reigning champions Portugal on Tuesday. The defeat also means Wales will not be among the top seeds for Euro 2028 qualifying.
Craig Bellamy's side began his tenure unbeaten in his first nine matches but have registered only four wins in their past 16 games. After the Oslo defeat Bellamy said: "We wanted to be in pot one. That was the drive," said head coach Bellamy after the defeat in Oslo. "Some people might say, 'what makes you think you should be in pot one?' But I do. "Maybe I'm naïve. I see in big parts of that game we can be in pot one. Let's take the good bits from the game, definitely improve on certain moments of the game and just keep pushing."
Only the two worst-performing sides in League A will be automatically relegated to League B. With one game remaining, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Serbia sit on zero points while Wales have three; for Wales to be among the bottom two they would need to lose to Portugal and two of those teams would need to win their final fixtures with a significant swing in goal difference.
Wales have a goal difference of -5; Turkey are at -10, the Czech Republic -10 and Serbia -7. Turkey visit France, the Czech Republic travel to Croatia and Serbia play in Greece, making an automatic relegation scenario unlikely without substantial scoreline reversals.
The relegation play-offs will be two-legged and held at the end of March, with the first legs on March 25-27 and the second legs on March 28-30. As a League A side Wales will be seeded and therefore play the second leg at home; the play-off draw takes place at Uefa's headquarters in Nyon on Friday, 20 November, when the sides finishing in the top two of League A's groups will also discover the quarter-final draw.
"With one game left to play, it's not yet clear." Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina are currently all second in their groups, while Scotland, Ukraine, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Poland could also emerge as potential opponents in the play-offs.
Wales have conceded eight goals and scored three in five games during this Nations League campaign. All teams finishing third or higher in League A will be named as top seeds for Euro 2028 qualifying; Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal are among the sides already guaranteed pot one seeding for the draw on 6 December in Belfast, and England will also be a top seed, although Thomas Tuchel's men will be kept apart from Wales and the other Euro 2028 co-hosts in qualifying regardless.
Wales meet Portugal on Tuesday in their final Nations League game, and given play-off places are based on Nations League rankings, Wales are highly likely to already have that safety net.
