Wales must beat Denmark in Cardiff to strengthen Euro 2028 prospects
Wales ended a six-game winless run by beating Norway 2-1 in Cardiff on Thursday in their Nations League A campaign. They will host Denmark at Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday, 4 October, 19:45 BST.
There has been little time for Craig Bellamy and his players to savour the Norway victory; after taking one Scandinavian scalp the task is to claim another. A win over Denmark would be Wales' first instance of back-to-back victories against higher-ranked nations for more than a decade and would offer a major step towards retaining top-tier Nations League status while boosting their Euro 2028 qualification prospects. The Denmark match is scheduled to be shown live on BBC iPlayer, BBC Two Wales, BBC Sounds, BBC Radio Wales, Radio Cymru and 5 Live, the BBC Sport website and app, with live text commentary also available.
Thursday’s 2-1 result was Wales' first success in this Nations League A campaign, coming after opening defeats in Portugal and Denmark. This is Wales' second campaign in League A after they were relegated without a win in the previous edition under Rob Page in 2022; Bellamy has stated the aim is to avoid a similar fate this time around. Despite beating Norway, Wales remain bottom of Group A4 and have work to do to improve their standing.
The victory over Norway did not change Wales’ place in the group because they trail Denmark and Norway on goal difference. Beating Denmark in Cardiff would keep Wales' fate in their own hands ahead of the final round of fixtures, which are against Norway in Oslo on 14 November and Portugal in Cardiff three days later. Wales lost 2-0 to Denmark in Copenhagen last weekend, a recent result that underlines the challenge they face.
The structure of relegation and play-offs has been altered for the next Nations League (2028-29), which benefits Wales' chances of staying in League A even if they finish bottom. Under the previous format the bottom teams from each of the four League A groups were automatically relegated and the third-placed sides entered relegation/promotion play-offs against League B runners-up. For this edition only the two worst-performing bottom sides will be relegated automatically; the other two bottom sides will contest two-legged play-offs in March 2027.
Additionally, the two best-performing third-placed teams will retain their League A status, with the next two third-placed sides entering play-offs. Ranking for these outcomes is determined by points, goal difference and the usual tie-breaking criteria. Currently Wales are the best of the fourth-placed sides, and a win over Denmark would strengthen their prospects of avoiding the play-offs and would also keep alive hopes of finishing second in the group and qualifying for the Nations League knock-outs, where two-legged quarter-finals are scheduled for March.
Seeding for Euro 2028 qualifying will be decided by the Nations League overall rankings; Wales will co-host the European Championships with England, the Republic of Ireland and Scotland but will still participate in the standard qualifying process. The draw for qualifying takes place in Belfast on 6 December, with teams split into 12 groups and seeds determined by Nations League positions. The best-performing 12 sides after next month's final fixtures will be kept apart as first seeds; if Wales avoid finishing bottom they would be among the top seeds and avoid facing any of the big guns. All co-hosting nations will be kept apart in the draw, and two places at the finals are reserved should any host nation fail to qualify automatically.
Cardiff's Principality Stadium is set to host the opening game of the European Championships on Friday 9 June 2028. Wales travel to Denmark on Sunday 4 October in a match that will shape their Nations League fate and influence their seeding for Euro 2028 qualifying.