Wales seek a competitive showing against New Zealand at Principality Stadium
Wales host New Zealand at Principality Stadium in the Nations Championship on Saturday, 14 November (14:10 GMT), with bookmakers offering 20-1 for a Welsh victory. The match will be broadcast live on BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cymru and BBC Radio 5Live.
A Welsh win would end a long run of defeats to the All Blacks: bookies’ odds reflect expectations that Wales will register a 35th straight loss to New Zealand and extend the wait since their last victory in December 1953 into its 74th year. The 20-1 price is the same as Japan at England, and betting markets favour Fiji to trouble Ireland; tickets remain available despite that outlook. Wales arrive after a 28-21 win over Japan and amid low morale linked to continuing off-field turmoil, while Steve Tandy—who took charge in 2025—has recorded wins over Japan (twice), Fiji and Italy since his appointment. Wales’ most recent result of notable significance was a 40-6 win over Australia in the 2023 World Cup under Warren Gatland; Australia visit Cardiff next Saturday (20:10 GMT).
Injuries have shaped selection: number eight Aaron Wainwright is unavailable, opening a starting spot for Taine Basham, who was Wales’ standout against New Zealand in 2021 and will make his first Test start since 2022. Head coach Tandy has kept the centre partnership of Max Llewellyn and Eddie James, and the forwards face pressure to improve a set-piece that struggled against Japan. Gloucester captain Dewi Lake defended the unit: "Go back on our performances over the last 12 to 18 months and we've been one of the top teams in the world in that area," he said. "A lot of our tries have come from driving maul or line-out set plays. We have got backs who are dangerous on launch plays. When we do secure our set-piece we are a dangerous team. It was a setback last week but we'll put it right." Montpellier lock Adam Beard returns as line-out caller and Dragons co-captain Ben Carter drops to the bench.
Wales' back line will include Louis Rees-Zammit and full-back Blair Murray aiming to build on encouraging displays against Japan, joined by Leicester wing Gabriel Hamer-Webb. Wales scored four tries in defeat by New Zealand last year when Tom Rogers recorded a hat-trick and Rees-Zammit added an acrobatic finish. "When you get the ball and get chances, be brave with it, be fearless because we have a strong back line and players who can finish," said Rees-Zammit. New Zealand scored seven tries against Wales in 2025.
The historical record between the sides underlines the challenge: Wales have finished within a score of New Zealand only twice in 23 matches since 1995. In 2004 Wales lost by a point, "with poor time management proving costly at the end," and in 2009 a chance to draw was lost when "lock Jones was reeled in after an interception and then a last-gasp line-out went awry." New Zealand have averaged heavy scoring in recent Cardiff visits, winning 54-16 in 2021, 55-23 in 2022 and 52-26 last year; the 55-point total matched their highest points tally against Wales first recorded in Hamilton in 2003.
New Zealand arrive under new leadership since 2025: Scott Robertson departed after the Cardiff trip in 2025 and Dave Rennie was appointed head coach. Under Rennie the All Blacks have shown changes in game plan and culture, with a win over South Africa in Johannesburg followed by three Springbok responses in defeats, then two wins against Australia and a second-half display of dominance against Scotland last week. Beauden Barrett, who will captain New Zealand in a Test for the first time, warned against complacency: "Wales are a team that want to play," he said. "They've got plenty of excitement and some really big threats, especially out wide. "They've certainly got a lot of grit, a lot of skill and X-factor, so we've got to be ready for anything." New Zealand aim to keep pressure on South Africa for first place in the southern hemisphere table, although the world champions have a healthy points difference advantage.
Wales: Murray; Rees-Zammit, E James, Llewellyn, Hamer-Webb; Costelow, Tomos Williams; N Smith, Lake (capt), Griffin, D Jenkins, Beard, Botham, Morgan Basham. Replacements: Elias, G Thomas, D Lewis, Carter, Plumtree, Morgan-Williams, Edwards, Hennessey.
New Zealand: B Barrett (capt); Fineanganofo, Tupaea, Lienert-Brown, Moorby; Mo'unga, Ratima; Bower, Aumua, Newell, S Barrett, Lord, Segner, Lakai, Sititi. Replacements: Bell, Numia, Tosi, Hannah, E Blackadder, Fainga'anuku, Preston, R Ioane. Assistants referees: Nic Berry (Australia) & Luc Ramos (France).
Wales have two Nations Championship fixtures remaining that will determine their place for finals day at Allianz Stadium; they could discover their Twickenham opponents this weekend with one round still to play. If Italy fail to beat Argentina with a bonus point on Saturday (11:40 GMT) Wales will be guaranteed to finish at least fifth; a Scotland bonus-point win against Australia on Sunday (15:10 GMT) would put fourth out of reach, with Scotland to finish against Japan even if they slip up. Wales are likely to finish fifth and, if so, will play on Saturday, 28 November (13:10 GMT) in a double-header with the teams that finish second, with another meeting with Japan possible unless Fiji win in Italy next weekend.