xG paints a different picture of Premier League starts after five games
Five games into the Premier League season, expected-goals (xG) data provides a contrasting view of how clubs have actually performed compared with the early table. The analysis identifies sides who are overperforming or underperforming their results based on the quality and quantity of chances created and conceded.
Expected goals (xG) measures how much teams have dominated matches by assessing the number and quality of shots taken and faced, with penalties excluded because refereeing decisions and defensive clumsiness can distort attacking and defensive quality. The sample is still small and some clubs have had tougher opening fixtures, so the table should not be taken at face value; at this stage last season Liverpool were top with five wins out of five and Tottenham were third, yet they finished fifth and 17th respectively. Historical trends suggest teams that dominate chances tend to collect more points over a season, but caution is advised at this early juncture.
Despite suffering their biggest defeat in three years last weekend at Brighton, champions Arsenal sit top by xG difference, with leaders Manchester City close behind in overall dominance. Unbeaten Brentford’s strong start is reflected in the underlying numbers rather than luck, while Manchester United’s inconsistent results mask an xG position in which only three teams have a higher xG difference so far.
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are performing better in terms of underlying numbers than their places in the early table indicate. At the other end of the xG rankings Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have been the least impressive overall, with Newcastle’s standing notable given their current position in the top half; Villa, after a slow start last season, improved to finish fourth.
Promoted sides Hull and Ipswich have produced solid starts to the campaign according to the xG data, suggesting they are competitive in the early weeks.
When focusing on attacking output, Brighton rank first for chances created on xG, followed by Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United. Eight teams currently have a higher xG than Arsenal, while Liverpool and Chelsea sit around the middle of the xG table.
Brighton have been notably clinical, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from 10.7 xG, while Newcastle have been even more efficient with 9 goals from 4.5 xG; "head coach Matthias Jaissle will no doubt want his team to create more and not have to rely on such sharp finishing as the season goes on." Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have each scored three goals fewer than their xG would suggest. Defensively, Arsenal remain the strongest backline by xG conceded, Forest head coach Oliver Glasner and Andoni Iraola at Liverpool have established solid bases at the back, whereas Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have been too open; Xabi Alonso's side are not quite as terrible as the 12 goals they have conceded suggests. Brighton’s attacking output has come with defensive vulnerability, Fabian Hurzeler's team perhaps fortunate not to have conceded more, while Everton and Leeds have conceded three goals fewer than expected and rank among the stronger defensive units overall.
With just five fixtures played, the sample size limits firm conclusions, but the xG figures offer an early indication of which teams might sustain good form and which sides have room for improvement as the season progresses.
