Early lessons from the Premiership after first full round of fixtures
The Scottish Premiership completed its first full circuit of fixtures on Wednesday, and clubs and managers are now assessing the table after 11 matches of the 38-game campaign.
Managers have long insisted they do not study the league standings until every side has played one another, a milestone reached on Wednesday; historically the table at this stage can be instructive — in two of the last three seasons the teams in the top six after 11 matches finished there in May. While many contend it is still early, the positions and underlying data after this opening circuit offer indications about how the season might unfold.
Hearts are one of the season’s prominent stories: Wouter Vrancken’s rebuilt squad sit third, eight points behind Celtic and four adrift of Rangers, and the manager has described his new style as "organised chaos". Only Celtic have scored more goals than Hearts, they remain unbeaten at Tynecastle in the league since April 2025 — a run of 26 matches — and have recorded home victories over Dundee United and St Mirren, though Wednesday’s 2-2 draw with Rangers felt like a missed opportunity as injuries and an unconvincing away record, including a 7-1 defeat at Celtic Park, have left them closer to fourth-placed Dundee.
Celtic and Rangers occupy the top two positions across several key performance metrics, including expected goals for and against, shots on target per game and chances created, and are the only sides conceding fewer than one goal per game on average. Celtic’s supporters may be unconvinced by the displays, but the club are on course to surpass 90 points this season after winning the title with 82 last term — the lowest winning total since 2017-18. Rangers, who are not involved in European football this season, also face scrutiny from their own fans despite their statistical standing.
Kilmarnock sit bottom of the table but are not isolated on points; they are level with Hibernian and one behind Motherwell. Bookmakers have made them favourites for automatic relegation largely because of their defensive record: Neil McCann’s side have conceded 26 goals in 11 games, the most at this stage since Dundee let in 28 in 2018-19 and subsequently went down. Across the last 10 seasons only twice has the team with the worst defensive record avoided finishing bottom — Tony Docherty’s Dundee in 2024-25 and Hamilton Academical in 2017-18 — and both of those teams compensated with strong goal returns, a scenario Kilmarnock have not matched as they have netted the joint fewest goals so far.
The expected points table highlights fine margins elsewhere in the division. Hibernian would have been expected to gain seven more points based on the chances they have created and conceded, while Motherwell are six points worse off than their underlying numbers suggest, which leaves both clubs as the biggest underperformers. Conversely, Falkirk and Dundee have gathered four and three points more than their expected points, respectively, a pattern that could presage regression.
Chance conversion separates several clubs: Hibs and Motherwell sit in the bottom three for shot conversion, while Falkirk and Dundee occupy places in the top four. The analysis notes that intangible factors such as the work-rate and team spirit fostered by John McGlynn and Steven Pressley at their clubs are not captured by the data, and that the quality and confidence of forwards appear to be a decisive factor in a tightly contested league.
What the opening circuit makes clear is that many Premiership clubs are closely matched and the fight for places — particularly to reach the top half — will be tight; those who miss out may find themselves perilously close to relegation. The table after 11 games therefore offers a functional guide to the battles to come rather than a definitive forecast for May.
